Let the countdown begin for quarterback Paxton Lynch’s first start with the Broncos. It might happen sooner than you think.
I have a dream, and it’s based on recent NFL history: When Houston and Brock Osweiler visit Denver on Oct. 24, fans will go wild when Lynch not only starts, but beats the Texans.
No offense to Mark Sanchez, but so long as he’s the No. 1 quarterback, the Broncos aren’t going anywhere. The road back to the Super Bowl doesn’t begin until coach Gary Kubiak gives the keys to Lynch and lets him drive.
Newsflash: Denver is not a patient football town. Spoiled by John Elway and Peyton Manning, fans demand Pro Bowl excellence from their quarterback.
No matter how much Sanchez believes he deserves to be No. 1, the controversy will begin with his first interception. At age 29, Sanchez thinks he has seen it all and believes he can deal with anything, after playing in New York and Philadelphia.
“Who knows what’s going to happen and who cares?” Sanchez said.
Oh, I know. Broncomaniacs won’t be rooting for Sanchez to fail, but their tolerance for his mistakes will be less than zero.
Yes, patience is advised in developing Lynch. It will take time for him to adjust to the speed of the NFL game, feel comfortable operating under center and look smart in Kubiak’s scheme.
But it would be a mistake to assume the Broncos must wait until 2017 to give Lynch his first NFL start for two major reasons: 1) He is physically the most gifted quarterback on the roster, and 2) the league’s top-ranked defense gives a young QB a real chance to succeed.
No rookie quarterback is prepared to start in the NFL from Day 1. Or have you forgotten this: John Elway once walked to the line of scrimmage and stuck his hands under the rump of startled guard Tom Glassic, who replied: “Hey, John, wrong guy! I don’t have the ball.” On the day in March when Peyton Manning announced his retirement, he recalled setting the league record for most interceptions as a rookie way back in 1998 and laughed how he wished for somebody, anybody, even his kid brother, Eli, to come along and erase the black mark on an otherwise brilliant career.
With a defense as dominant as the one Lynch has the pleasure of joining, however, a rookie quarterback can win big, if he is humble enough to accept a dumbed-down playbook and realize great field position can be his best friend.
In 2004, Ben Roethlisberger came out of Miami-Ohio, not mistaken for a Southeastern Conference powerhouse, and won 14 consecutive games with a nasty Pittsburgh defense led by safety Troy Polamalu, before losing in the AFC championship game to New England. In 2012, Russell Wilson was required to throw only 25 times per game as a rookie starter, as a the top-ranked Seattle defense led the push to the playoffs.
And here’s the kicker: In 2009, the meanest, nastiest defense in the league took on all the swagger of New York, where the Jets of flamboyant coach Rex Ryan and shutdown corner Darrelle Revis allowed an NFL-low 236 points and advanced to the AFC championship. The quarterback of that team? A 23-year-old rookie named Mark Sanchez, who completed only 53 percent of his passes, while throwing 12 touchdowns and 20 interceptions.
It would be foolhardy to predict Lynch will ever be as great as Roethlisberger or Wilson, but I’m betting he’s as good right now as Sanchez was as a rookie.
There is an 11-day gap between the Broncos’ visit to San Diego for a Thursday night game on Oct. 13 and the return home to play Houston, which will be the seventh game on the Denver schedule. If after a tough six weeks, the team’s record is 3-3, the pressure will be immense to bench Sanchez and start Lynch.
Elway, however, does what he wants around these parts, and Broncos Country usually follows by shouting “Amen!” But not even Elway is bigger than the scoreboard, and nobody wants to win more. From the outset of the 2015 season, he repeatedly stated that the Broncos would be a work in progress, with the goal of playing great football in the playoffs. If Lynch is indeed the franchise quarterback Elway thinks, then the rookie should be ready to lead the offense no later than Thanksgiving, after the team’s bye on Nov. 20.
This is no way to say hello, but here goes: I’m sorry, Mr. Sanchez, but you are almost certainly doomed to be the least popular guy to throw passes for the Broncos since Kyle Orton. And we all know how that turned out. The last time this crazy football town was so ready to embrace a young QB drafted in the first round, it was called Tebowmania.
Although no lock to win the AFC West, Denver can win 10 games and make the playoffs with Sanchez as the starter.
But the only real shot the Broncos have of becoming the first team in a dozen years to repeat as NFL champs is if the 22-year-old Lynch is more precocious than anybody can reasonably expect.
Let the countdown to the dream begin.
Mark Kiszla: mkiszla@denverpost.com or @markkiszla
