Republicans on Tuesday night appeared to be making a strong play for control of the Colorado Senate, marking the first time in a decade the party would hold sway in the chamber.
GOP candidates held narrow leads in three closely watched races in Jefferson County though Democrats looked on track to take back Senate seats lost to Republicans last year during recall elections.
With Democrats clinging to an 18-17 edge in the Senate, the results from a single race could make the difference in who forms a majority in the chamber for the next session in January.
According to unofficial results from the Colorado secretary of state’s office posted late Tuesday night, Republican challenger Laura Woods led Sen. Rachel Zenzinger, D-Arvada, by more than 2 percentage points in Senate District 19.
In another Jefferson County race, GOP candidate Larry Queen was edging Sen. Cheri Jahn by fewer than 1,000 votes out of more than 61,000 ballots counted.
Democratic Sen. Jeanne Nicholson was losing by a larger margin — about 5 percentage points — to Republican challenger Tim Neville.
In a rare positive note for Democrats in Jefferson County, Sen. Andy Kerr, D-Lakewood, was holding off Republican Tony Sanchez by less than 1 percentage point of the vote out of more than 50,000 ballots tallied.
If all Senate races were to continue trending the way they were late Tuesday night, Republicans could gain as much as a 20-15 advantage.
But Democratic strategist Steve Welchert, who was counting votes in Rep. Ed Perlmutter’s campaign war room, said there were still thousands of uncounted ballots in Jeffco that could influence the outcomes of the races in question.
“I think there are enough votes outstanding that you can’t call these races,” he said.
Jeffco officials said they were still counting ballots late Tuesday night and would not start processing 6,500 ballots from those who voted in person until Wednesday morning.
A total of 18 state Senate races were in play Tuesday. Most eyes were on races in Jefferson County, where Democratic incumbents faced GOP challengers who came to the race with the backing of staunch pro-firearms group Rocky Mountain Gun Owners.
Republican strategist Dick Wadhams was pleased with the early results, especially given the strong showing by U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, who beat incumbent Mark Udall in the U.S. Senate race.
“You don’t win a statewide race in Colorado if you don’t do well in Jeffco,” he said. “The fact that the Republican candidates in Jeffco are in the lead and have a chance of winning could mean a new (Colorado) Senate majority for Republicans.”
Welchert said maintaining control of the Senate “is paramount” for Democrats.
“Keeping control of the legislative levers of power is key,” he said.
Rick Enstrom, who follows Jefferson County politics and was an unsuccessful Republican candidate for a state House seat two years ago, said GOP control of the Senate would put a brake on some of the Democratic-fueled legislation that has come out of the statehouse recently.
“It will stop some of the overreach we saw in the last two sessions,” he said.
There was an energy this year among Republican voters and activists that Enstrom said he didn’t see two years ago. As of Tuesday morning, nearly 117,000 more Republicans had returned ballots than had Democrats statewide. In Jefferson County, more than 78,000 GOP voters had turned in ballots, compared with Democrats’ 65,000.
“The turnout and the ballot-chasing methods the Republicans have done have been hugely different from 2012,” Enstrom said.
And the unpopularity of President Barack Obama only “fuels the fire” of Republicans looking to reassert themselves in the state’s political power structure, he said.
But Welchert said Republicans had their own challenges.
“The Jefferson County school board thing is absolutely part of the discussion,” he said. “Democrats are making the case that the school board majority is aligned with the conservative nominees in the Jefferson County Senate races.”
The school board made headlines in September when a member of its conservative majority suggested revamping the Advanced Placement U.S. history curriculum with an eye toward emphasizing concepts promoting patriotism and American exceptionalism over topics having to do with civil disorder. The issue prompted several weeks of walkouts by students upset that the school board might try to whitewash American history.
Welchert also questioned the appeal of several of the Republican Jefferson County candidates, including Woods and Sanchez, beyond a diehard Republican base.
“Rocky Mountain Gun Owners has just enough money and clout to get their candidates through a primary, but they don’t have enough money and clout to get them through the general election,” he said.
Enstrom disagreed, saying he at first felt the gun-owners group had overplayed its hand but now feels that Republican frustration with Colorado’s Democratic majority in the General Assembly and control of the governor’s office for the past eight years holds more sway.
“I anticipate most, if not all four Jeffco Senate races, going R,” Enstrom said. “Our chances are as good as I’ve seen in eight years.”
John Aguilar: 303-954-1695, jaguilar@denverpost.com or twitter.com/abuvthefold
State senate races to watch
SD 3 (Pueblo)
George Rivera – R
Leroy Garcia – D
SD5 (Pitkin, Eagle, Lake, Chaffee, Delta, Gunnison, Hinsdale counties)
Don Suppes – R
Kerry Donovan – D
Lee Mulcahy – L
SD11 (Colorado Springs)
Bernie Herpin – R
Mike Merrifield – D
Norman Dawson – L
SD 16 (Gilpin, Jefferson counties)
Jeanne Nicholson – D
Tim Neville – R
SD 19 (north Jeffco)
Rachel Zenzinger – D
Laura Woods – R
Gregg Miller – L
SD 20 (Jeffco)
Cheri Jahn – D
Larry Queen – R
Chris Heismann – L
SD 22 (Jeffco)
Andy Kerr – D
Tony Sanchez – R
SD 24 (Adams County)
Judy Solano – D
Beth Martinez Humenik – R
