Coloradans are showing signs they are open to the idea of unseating an elected governor for the first time in 52 years, as one new poll shows a close race and another gives the challenger the edge.
Gov. John Hickenlooper appeared impermeable six months ago, but as the race enters the final weeks Republican Bob Beauprez, a former congressman, is keeping pace even as he gets outspent on television advertising.
“For the first time in his political life, (Hickenlooper) is in a fight for his political life,” said Eric Sondermann, an independent political analyst. “He has never been in the kind of head-on-head, flip-a-coin kind of battle.”
A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesdays rattled the Colorado political landscape when it reported Beauprez held a 10-point lead against Hickenlooper — 50 percent to 40 percent — in what most consider a deadlocked race. The numbers gave a quick fundraising boost for Beauprez, the campaign said, but another poll released hours later tempered any suggestion of a GOP surge.
That USA Today/Suffolk University survey, conducted Saturday through Tuesday, gave Hickenlooper a two-point edge against Beauprez, 43 percent to 41 percent, a statistical tie within the 4.4 percent margin of error.
The results aligned with a Denver Post/SurveyUSA poll of likely voters conducted last week that showed Hickenlooper at 45 percent and Beauprez at 43 percent, again a dead heat within the 3.9 percent margin of error.
Another early September poll from NBC News/Marist poll also found a close race with Hickenlooper at 43 percent and Beauprez at 39 percent, a 4-point lead just outside the margins.
The Quinnipiac poll is the outlier, but taken together the surveys indicate voters are at least considering their options, observers say.
“I’m not sure I buy that Bob has a 10 point lead at this moment,” said Dick Wadhams, former chairman of the Colorado Republican Party. “But what I am more and more convinced of is voters do not like John Hickenlooper as their governor.”
The disparate numbers reflect different polling methods and a race that continues to evolve as voters pay more attention.
Jay Leve, editor of SurveyUSA, who oversaw The Denver Post poll released last week that had drastically different findings, questioned the Quinnipiac poll’s results.
“We at SurveyUSA have a great deal of respect for Quinnipiac, but we don’t see the race this way,” he said. “This (poll) stands out as different than a collective of polls from across the country.”
The campaigns likewise reacted in different ways to the poll.
“The reality is when you get out around the state and start to talk to people, it’s a very mixed picture. I think this poll reflects that,” said campaign spokesman Allen Fuller. “If you’re an incumbent and you’re a month from ballots going out and you’re in the low 40s, that’s not cause for celebrating.”
Democrats also discounted the Quinnipiac numbers, suggesting it doesn’t provide a true picture of the race.
Hickenlooper’s campaign sent a memo designed to reassure supporters criticizing the poll for over-sampling conservative-minded voters by relying on self-reported party identification, not on actual voter registration in its sample. It’s a common practice in independent polls, but disputed by campaigns, which rely on voter registration rolls.
“Despite what an outlier poll says, the governor is in a strong position for re-election,” campaign manager Brad Komar wrote in the internal memo.
Quinnipiac poll officials firmly stood behind their results, despite acknowledging the gap when compared to similar surveys.
The poll found voters who identified as independent, or unaffiliated voters, favoring Beauprez 50 percent to Hickenlooper’s 37 percent. Also, women, who often favor Democrats, split their vote between the two candidates, the poll found.
Tim Malloy, assistant polling director, said GOP voters tend to have a bigger turnout during midterm elections. He said the poll could reflect an “anti-incumbency mood” he has seen in races across the country.
Democratic strategists said they anticipated a close race all along, particularly in a nonpresidential election year, but some are surprised that Hickenlooper isn’t performing better, citing his stumbles on the campaign trail.
The dynamic of the race, however, may change in coming weeks as Democrats put their cash advantage to use.
An outside political group called Making Colorado Great, which is funded by the Democratic Governors Association, started its $2 million TV ad campaign attacking Beauprez this month and Hickenlooper’s campaign is putting $2 million into its own TV ads.
Beauprez launched his TV ad campaign Tuesday but wouldn’t disclose his spending. He has $362,739 left of the roughly $1.5 million of campaign funds he’s raised and loaned his campaign, according to filings Monday with the Colorado Secretary of State. Hickenlooper, meanwhile, has $602,641 of his $4.3 million left in the bank.
Beauprez is getting help from the Republican Governors Association, which has spent more than $1.5 million to boost his campaign. But the Washington organization stopped airing ads this week.
Beauprez must prove to voters that he is a “worthy alternative” in the next few weeks, Wadhams said, adding that voters don’t know enough about the Republican candidate yet.
“If an incumbent governor is behind, he is in deep trouble,” said Floyd Ciruli, an independent pollster from Ciruli Associates. “Turning that around is extremely difficult.”
In order to win the race, Ciruli said, Hickenlooper has to remind voters of his successes while in office and point out his opponent’s weaknesses. The governor also has to maintain his popularity among women, which the Quinnipiac poll said he had lost.
“All of this is starting to mount up,” said Bob Loevy, a retired Colorado College political science professor. “The fact that there is a poll out that shows (Hickenlooper) so far down from a reliable source has got to have an impact on the campaign.”
Loevy says that means the governor needs to go on the offensive.
“I’ve never seen things turn against an incumbent governor quite so swiftly and quite so close to Election Day,” Loevy said.
John Frank: 303-954-2409, jfrank@denverpost.com or Twitter/ByJohnFrank
