DOCUMENT: Read the complete findings of the latest Denver Post poll.
The top-ticket races in Colorado are deadlocked in the final Denver Post poll of the 2014 election, illustrating the state’s split political personality and the vulnerability of Democrats in this Republican-leaning midterm.
Democratic incumbent Mark Udall trails his Republican challenger Cory Gardner by 2 points — a statistical tie — in one of the nation’s most-watched U.S. Senate races.
And Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper is fighting for his political life in a dead heat against Republican rival Bob Beauprez.
“In terms of the Senate race, we knew this was going to be a tough race for Udall, and that’s simply because the national environment for all Democrats is difficult,” said Peter Hanson, a political science expert at the University of Denver.
As for Hickenlooper, Hanson said, “He’s not running for federal office and does not suffer in the same way with the unpopularity of President (Barack) Obama as Mark Udall does.”
The SurveyUSA poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday, shows Gardner at 46 percent and Udall at 44 percent, an edge within the 4-percentage-point margin of error.
The poll surveyed likely voters and those who have already cast ballots in Colorado’s first all-mail election.
More than 1 million voters returned their ballots by Wednesday, and registered Republicans hold a 9-percentage-point advantage over Democrats, who typically wait longer to return their ballots.
The results roughly align with the average margin of all polling in the U.S. Senate race and make Colorado one of a handful of states that could decide partisan control of the legislative chamber.
In the governor’s race, Hickenlooper and Beauprez are tied at 46 percent, with another 4 percent undecided, a closer contest than some political observers expected.
An average of public polling shows the campaign tied or barely favoring Hickenlooper.
The dead heat raises the possibility that Republican candidates could sweep state government posts. The poll found that GOP candidates hold solid leads in down-ballot races for treasurer, secretary of state and attorney general.
Not since 1970 have Republicans won all four races at once, political observers said, although the GOP briefly controlled all the seats in the mid-2000s after an appointment.
An incumbent governor hasn’t failed to win re-election in Colorado in more than half a century. A sitting U.S. senator hasn’t lost re-election in Colorado since the 1970s.
One voter contacted for the poll, Jim Burnell of Golden, demonstrates why the Democratic incumbents are facing tough re-election fights.
Burnell, 67, said he cast a ballot for Udall in 2008 and Hickenlooper in 2010. But the self-described independent said he already voted this year for their Republican rivals.
In the governor’s race, Burnell said it came down to his impression that Hickenlooper was riding the Democratic “bandwagon” on issues such as renewable energy and gun control.
He said he is no big fan of Beauprez — “Why this guy keeps popping up, I don’t know” — but added that he felt Hickenlooper stopped trying to “reach out to everyone.”
Conversely, Burnell said his vote in the Senate race was spurred by his interest in Udall’s challenger.
“I’m really intrigued by Cory Gardner,” he said, citing the congressman’s youth and his upbringing as a “country boy from eastern Colorado.”
Within the poll results, Republicans and Democrats can find promising numbers.
The demographics show that Gardner and Beauprez lead among self-identified independent voters, a key indicator of which way the race will tilt in the state where one-third of the voters are registered unaffiliated.
On the Democratic side, the numbers indicate the party is well-positioned to overcome any Republican edge if it can get supporters to vote.
The poll gives Udall and Hickenlooper only a nominal edge among women voters, who typically favor the party by a wide margin.
It also doesn’t capture the traditional support for Democrats among Latino voters, more than 80 percent of whom backed the party in 2010 and 2012.
“The most important factor for both (races) is Democratic turnout,” Hanson said. “If the Democratic turnout operation in Colorado is effective, then that rising tide will lift both ships.”
John Frank: 303-954-2409, jfrank@denverpost.com or twitter.com/ByJohnFrank
Staff writer Mark Matthews contributed to this report.
