The dominoes should start to fall during the Rockies’ offseason Monday when veteran outfielder Michael Cuddyer decides whether to accept a new contract to stay with Colorado.
Whatever Cuddyer decides to do with a $15.3 million qualifying offer will probably push the Rockies into a series of corresponding moves. He has a 3 p.m. deadline Monday to make up his mind as Major League Baseball opens its four-day general managers meetings in Phoenix.
If Cuddyer accepts the Rockies’ offer, the team will have four players due about $66 million next season within an expected payroll of around $95 million. Four players making 70 percent of a team’s total payroll would make the Rockies the second-most top-heavy team in baseball.
Since MLB began the qualifying-offer process in 2012 as a way to help small-market teams, no player has accepted the offer. If a player rejects the offer and another team signs him, that new team owes the original team a first-round draft pick. The offer price is determined by averaging MLB’s top 125 salaries.
This year could be different for players with qualifying offers. Boston’s Stephen Drew rejected his $14.1 million offer last season, but teams were shy to sign him because of the lost draft pick, and Drew didn’t sign, back with Boston, until well into the season, on May 20.
The Rockies insist they want Cuddyer back and aren’t trying to bluff their way into a draft pick. Cuddyer, 35, played just 49 games last season because of a broken shoulder and an injured hamstring.
Cuddyer’s qualifying offer would pay him nearly $5 million more than he made last season and make him the Rockies’ third highest-paid player behind Troy Tulowitzki ($20 million) and Carlos Gonzalez ($16.4 million).
If Cuddyer turns down the offer, he would probably be looking for at least a two-year contract on the open market.
“You never know about the offseason. It’s an animal of its own,” Cuddyer said after the Rockies’ final home game this past season. “I’d like to (return to the Rockies) for sure.”
Colorado owner Dick Monfort said last season, “I would like to figure out a way to keep him.”
Rockies manager Walt Weiss, who has an increased role in Colorado’s offseason alongside new general manager Jeff Bridich, is a big fan of Cuddyer’s.
“I’d love to have Cuddy back,” Weiss said near season’s end. “He’s a dream for a manager because he sets the standard high. … The leadership — some people may think that’s overrated, or you think it’s overrated until you don’t have it. Then you learn how valuable it is.”
If the Rockies re-signed Cuddyer, it would give them six outfielders. And it would take money away from what they have to spend to replace starting pitcher Brett Anderson, whose contract option they declined.
The Rockies would also need to find Cuddyer a position. Gonzalez returns as their starting right fielder. Corey Dickerson took over in left field this past season and had a breakout season. Cuddyer could be moved to first base, but 2014 batting champion Justin Morneau is signed for 2015.
The Rockies might look to trade Gonzalez — or Morneau, who is due $6.75 million next year. But Gonzalez is coming off an in- jury-plagued season, and Morneau has a team-friendly contract, less than half what Cuddyer has been offered.
Nick Groke: ngroke@denverpost.com or twitter.com/nickgroke