Nearly two months ago, Trevor Siemian had done the unthinkable. He had guided the Broncos to wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and the Dallas Cowboys and defied the odds stacked high against both him — a seventh-round pick out of Northwestern — and the Broncos’ offense, which was still in transition since the retirement of Peyton Manning.
In the first two weeks of the season, Siemian led the league in passing touchdown percentage (10 percent), ranked fifth in passer rating (106.9) and had the Broncos averaging 33 points per game, tied for third the NFL. Their run game was clicking, their defense ranked in the top five in total yards allowed and yards rushing, and finally the Broncos appeared to have the complete package. With a star in the making at quarterback, no less.
Not so much now.
The Broncos have lost their way in nearly every facet and are searching for their identity. Just as significant, their once QB on the rise, Siemian, has taken a sharp fall as the team has rotated through three starters, fired an offensive coordinator and lost eight consecutive games by an average of nearly 17 points.
From the outside, it’s perhaps easy to assume that Siemian — like his team — is broken.
“I’m good. It happens,” he said Wednesday. “You look around the league, you see quarterbacks take their licks. I feel like I’ve taken my fair share, no doubt. But it’s all on me. I’ve been reckless with the ball at times, made some bad throws. I can own up to that. I’ve got to improve, no doubt.”
As the Broncos’ season has tumbled, there has been a familiar pattern from the offense: Turnovers lead to an early deficit, forcing them to move away from the run game and often prompting Siemian to press to make a big play and stop the bleeding. Often that has backfired, setting the Broncos further into a tailspin with another turnover here, a poor throw there, and before they know it, an even larger deficit.
It’s a vicious cycle the Broncos have been unable to stop since they returned from their Week 5 bye, and one that cost Siemian his starting job midway through the season.
“I’m kind of out of sync at times,” Siemian said. “In times I haven’t played well, there hasn’t been a real rhythm with me and that trickles all the way through the offense.
“When things aren’t going well, you want to make a play, you want to do something — fit a ball in, you want to make sure you don’t miss a play — and that’s when bad things happen. For me I just kind of go back to feeling the flow of the game and not trying to do too much.”
For Siemian, the flashes of potential have often been masked by critical mistakes. When he took over for an injured Paxton Lynch in the second half at Oakland, Siemian engineered a pair of long scoring drives to spare the Broncos of a blowout loss. Had Denver gotten one more defensive stop, Siemian would have had a chance to lead the offense to a tie and force overtime.
But when he returned to the field last Sunday at Miami, his first start since getting benched, Siemian appeared a different quarterback, with misreads, off-target passes and three interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown.
Though he’s struggled under pressure throughout the season, it was his play with no pressure on Sunday that was alarming. According to Pro Football Focus, Siemian went 15-of-31 passing for 176 yards, zero touchdowns, all three picks and a 26.5 passer rating when operating with a clean pocket at Miami.
Even more concerning is the drop-off in Siemian’s play from his impressive first two weeks, to his last six as a starter. In Weeks 1 and 2, he had a clean pocket on 68 percent of his dropbacks and completed 75 percent of his passes for five touchdowns, one interception and a 127.5 rating on those plays.
In his last six starts, hehas had no pressure on 62.8 percent of his dropbacks, has completed 67.7 percent of his passes, tossed two touchdowns, been picked off five times and recorded a 79.7 rating.
Under pressure, his numbers have plummeted. His rating is a paltry 14.4 in his last six starts, and he’s thrown six interceptions to one touchdown. He’s also taken 22 of his 29 sacks in that stretch. Though he completed only 37.5 percent of his passes under pressure in the first two weeks, his touchdown-to-interception ratio was 1-to-1.
“He’s the same guy. He’s a confident quarterback and he’s a smart guy. He studies and works at it,” coach Vance Joseph said. “I would say this: Decision-making and seeing different defenses as the season progresses, guys play you differently. That can be a reason that he hasn’t played consistent. Our focus now is Sunday and I’m looking forward to Trevor playing better this Sunday.”
The Broncos’ final four games mean little for their standing. The hope of a playoff return was crushed long ago. But the final stretch means everything to the players and coaches fighting for job security in 2018.
“A lot of bad breaks in Miami. One thing I know about Trevor is he will move on, still calm and collected like the Trevor he was when he started competing for this job last year,” running back C.J. Anderson said. “He understands it’s tough. I think it’s a re-evaluation for all of us, what we need to do in the offseason for our personal career to push through times and situations like this.”
Then and Now
How Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian has fared with a clean pocket and under pressure in his first two weeks of the season compared to his last six starts:
