It’s time to step into the shoes of John Elway and the other 31 NFL general managers with draft day less than a month away. The NFL Combine, owners meeting and nearly all pro days are complete, leaving April as a month for teams to finalize their draft boards.
My first mock draft is based upon what I think teams will do and my own study of tape. There will undoubtedly be trades on draft day, but we won’t project them for this mock draft.
May the draft board fall in your favorite team’s favor.
1. Cleveland Browns, Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M: The Browns don’t have the talent to get cute here. They take Garrett, a potential all-Pro pass rusher with rare athleticism, to cornerstone their defense. They then figure out the quarterback spot at pick 12.
2. San Francisco 49ers, Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford: He’s not Garrett, but Thomas fills the 49ers’ need of a high-motor pass rusher with elite upside as they move to a 4-3 defense. Watch out for a possible move-down for the 49ers as they look for a QB.
3. Chicago Bears, Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama: There are questions about injuries to Allen’s shoulders but if the medicals check out, he will immediately help fix the Bears’ defense with his ability to cause disruption. Don’t overthink this one Chicago.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars, Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: For a team still relying on Blake Bortles at quarterback, Fournette would be a great fit as the focal point of the Jags offense. He’s not a pass catching back, but he could quickly become a top-five NFL rusher.
5. Tennessee Titans (via Rams), Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State: His combination of athleticism, fluidity and ball skills should have the Titans drooling. He could become the draft’s best player, if his hamstrings hold up.
6. New York Jets, O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama: Most will have the Jets going QB here, but instead they grab the safest prospect in the draft. Howard is a complete, three-down tight end who looks like he’ll become a Pro Bowl player and the Jets’ top receiver.
7. Los Angeles Chargers, Jamal Adams, S, LSU: Safeties typically don’t go this high, but Adams isn’t a typical safety. He’s a complete package who can cover the run and defend the pass. He’ll be a Pro Bowler down the line.
8. Carolina Panthers, John Ross, WR, Washington: Cam Newton can’t use his cannon arm to expose defenses if Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess are running go routes. Ross, Mr. 4.22 40-yard dash, has elite footwork and playmaking ability. Think DeSean Jackson.
9. Cincinnati Bengals, Haason Reddick, LB, Temple: Reddick is the draft’s fastest riser after flying under the radar at the Senior Bowl. His rare combination of pass rush, toughness and coverage skills makes him the first linebacker taken and fills multiple Bengals needs.
10. Buffalo Bills, Mike Williams, WR, Clemson: Williams reminds a lot of folks around the NFL of Alshon Jeffery as a big, jump-ball receiver. He’s not a burner, but he’d provide Tyrod Taylor the most reliable red zone and third down threat of his career.
11. New Orleans Saints, Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee: Barnett is one of the safest picks in the draft and a likely candidate to be a 8-12 sack guy for 8-10 years. He will immediately become the Saints top pass rusher and possibly their most complete defender. .
12. Cleveland Browns (via Eagles), Mitchell Trubisky, QB, UNC: The Browns share fist pounds as Trubisky is still on the board. His one year of starting experience scared away top-10 teams, but Cleveland isn’t in a win-now spot and loves his franchise QB upside.
13. Arizona Cardinals, Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech: This could be Carson Palmer’s final season as the Cardinals starting quarterback. Bruce Arians finds a gunslinger in Mahomes whom he hopes to groom as well as his last pupil, Ben Roethlisberger.
14. Philadelphia Eagles (via Vikings), Tre’Davious White, CB, LSU: There’s about four or five corners who could reasonably be the second at the position off the board. White is a finger-wagging corner with elite ball skills and he’ll fit perfectly in Jim Schwartz’s aggressive man scheme.
15. Indianapolis Colts, Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford: Frank Gore turns 34 in May. McCaffrey is a perfect complement to him now and also his eventual replacement. McCaffrey also provides Andrew Luck an explosive receiver alongside T.Y. Hilton. Broncos fans moan.
16. Baltimore Ravens, Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan: Whether Joe Flacco is elite or not, he needs weapons to lift up the Ravens’ anemic offense. Even coming from a small school, Davis has the route running, hands and toughness that scream NFL success.
17. Washington Redskins, Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State: This is no knock on Hooker, who despite having hernia and hip surgeries recently has been considered a top-10 prospect. Washington cashes out as this rangy free safety with raw skills.
18. Tennessee Titans, Reuben Foster, LB, Alabama: Foster flashes all over the field when you turn on the tape, but linebackers who don’t pass rush have a hard time finding the top-10. He drops into Tennessee’s lap as it nabs two of the draft’s best defenders.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, David Njoku, TE, Miami: Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Njoku? Jameis Winston won’t ever stop smiling. Defensive coordinators would also have nightmares figuring out who can handle Njoku, a raw but impressive athlete, down the seam.
20. Denver Broncos, Garett Bolles, OT, Utah: The Broncos get a first-round talent at their biggest position of need. With McCaffrey off the board, Denver finds its left tackle of now and the future. Bolles is still a little raw, but he’s the draft’s most athletic and nastiest left tackle. More on the Broncos selection of Bolles here.
21. Detroit Lions, Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan: Some hometown cooking as Charlton stays in Michigan to help the Lions improve their pass rush. If Teryl Austin can keep his motor revving, Charlton can join with Ziggy Ansah to form the NFL’s best defensive end duo.
22. Miami Dolphins, Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan: Peppers gets docked for his versatility, but it gets McCaffrey a boost? It’ll take a flexible defensive coordinator, but Peppers can ball. He could fall out of the first round, but in this mock Miami gets an underrated starting safety.
23. New York Giants, Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin: The Giants get a technician at left tackle to replace Ereck Flowers. Ramczyk’s hip injury is a bit of a worry. His potential isn’t as high as Bolles or Cam Robinson, but he also is a safer pick than those two.
24. Oakland Raiders, Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama: There’s now a run of tackles with Robinson being the third in five picks off the board. He looks like a Raider on tape. I’m not sure he’ll be a left tackle early in his career, but he’d be a Day 1 starting right tackle in a power scheme.
25. Houston Texans, DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame: Tony Romo or not, the Texans need a quarterback of the future. Kizer has coachable traits, but he showed poor accuracy and decision-making on film. It’s time for Bill O’Brien to prove he’s the QB whisperer.
26. Seattle Seahawks, Forrest Lamp, OG/OT, Western Kentucky: The Seahawks finally stop switching defensive lineman to offense and get a solid player in Lamp. He’ll be a Day 1 starter at guard and if his arms were three inches longer, he’d be the draft’s best tackle.
27. Kansas City Chiefs, Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson: It’d disappoint Watson to sit this long on draft day, but he’d be in a great spot. Andy Reid could help fix Watson’s deep accuracy, limited field vision issues and groom him to replace Alex Smith in a year or two.
28. Dallas Cowboys, Obi Melifonwu, S, UConn: The Cowboys’ secondary needed a lot of help before they lost nearly all of their starters to free agency. For the second time in three years, they nab an uber-athletic UConn defensive back in the first round to fix it.
29. Green Bay Packers, Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State: The lesser-known of the two Buckeye cornerbacks isn’t just a consolation prize. Conley’s ball skills are superb, he mirrors receivers well and has good instincts. The Packers get a Day 1 starter to add to their atrocious secondary.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers, Davis Webb, QB, California: The Steelers anticipate Big Ben back in 2017, but the retirement scare expedites their timeline on his successor. Webb has the size, arm strength and athleticism, but needs a couple of years to develop the rest of his game.
31. Atlanta Falcons, T.J. Watt, OLB/DE, Wisconsin: Little brother Watt doesn’t have the size of J.J. What he does have is an improving skill set that would fit well opposite Vic Beasley. Watt isn’t an elite athlete, but Dan Quinn will love his grit and upside.
32. New Orleans Saints (via Patriots), Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado: Awuzie has the versatility, technique and moxie of the Broncos’ Chris Harris. Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, who coached Harris as a rookie, hopes Awuzie can be close to that player.
