Meteorologists who predict fire danger say a cooling trend this spring means the chance for wildfires in Colorado and Wyoming and parts of South Dakota is lower than normal this summer, according to the National Interagency Fire Center’s summer outlook.
“We’ll have some fires and periods of fire activity, but it’s not looking like one of our busy years,” said Russ Mann, a meteorologist for the National Park Service.
Over the next 120 days, forecasters expect about 135,000 acres of grass and forest land to be burned by large wildfires in Colorado, Wyoming and South Dakota, Mann said.
By comparison, 947,000 acres of forest and grasslands were destroyed in 2012, he said. Colorado had numerous highly destructive wildfires that year, including the Waldo Canyon fire near Colorado Springs and the High Park fire that destroyed more than 87,000 acres in Larimer County.
On average over the past 16 years, about 220,000 acres of wild lands are destroyed each year in the region encompassing Colorado, Wyoming and South Dakota, he said.
The 2017 fire-danger projection is based on weather patterns including temperature anomalies, precipitation and drought comparisons, and the moisture content in fire fuels including grass, brush and trees.
Snowpack levels in the mountains also indicate a lower-than-normal fire danger, Mann said.
Risk of wildfires will be lower than average in June and July in Colorado and Wyoming, but return to normal in August and September.
Colorado’s Western Slope is experiencing drier conditions than the eastern half of the state and so fire forecasters are projecting a more typical year, he said.
A frost on the Western slope killed large areas of brush and other plants, contributing to the wildfire fuel load, Mann said.